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[coverattach=1]Testing For The Structural Break In The Turkish Foreign Trade unit root. On the other hand, Perron (1989) claims that the macroeconomic time series are stationary around a deterministic trend

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Standart Testing For The Structural Break In The Turkish Foreign Trade

[coverattach=1]Testing For The Structural Break In The Turkish Foreign Trade
unit root. On the other hand, Perron (1989) claims that the macroeconomic time series are stationary around a deterministic trend if allowance is made for the possibility of a single break in either the intercept and/or the slope of the trend function. This paper examines whether a segmented trend-stationary process or a difference-stationary process best models the basic foreign trade variables for the Turkish economy.
1. INTRODUCTION
The serious deterioration in the performance of the Turkish economy in the second half of the 1970s forced the Turkish authorities to announce a new economic programme in January 1980. The program aimed at changing Turkey's development strategy away from the inward-oriented import substitution policy of the previous two decades to an outward-oriented export promotion strategy. The main components of the programme concerning the foreign sector of the economy were a devaluation of Turkish Lira against the US dollar, abolition of the multiple exchange rate regime, liberalisation of trade and payment regimes, measures to promote exports and adoption of a new exchange rate regime which aims at reflecting the inflation differential between Turkey and her major trading partners in order to maintain international price competitiviness.
It has been claimed on the basis of empirical evidence mostly provided by the test of Dickey and Fuller (1979, 1981) that the majority of the macroeconomic time series has a unit root. On the other hand, Perron (1989) claims that most of the macroeconomic time series can be interpreted as stationary around a deterministic trend function if allowance is made for the possibility of a single break in either the intercept and/or the slope of the trend function.
In this paper, we claim that the major foreign trade variables of the Turkish economy under the 1980 economic program can be more adequately characterised as a segmented trend-stationary process than as a difference-stationary process. There have not been any studies that search for the structural break in the Turkish foreign trade. This is the first study that fills a gap on this subject.
The remainder of the paper is organised as follows: Section two briefly describes the concepts of unit roots and trend breaks; section three reports the empirical findings, and final section summarises the conclusions.

Murat DOĞANLAR
Assistant Professor of Economics University of Çukurova Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Department of Economics
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